Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
